![]() ![]() And at this point, the pure retirements for Republicans have more to do with scandal (in the case of New York Rep. Indeed, there’s been a tendency in midterm years for the president’s party to have more pure retirements than the out-of-office party. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or district’s lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean based on the statewide popular vote in the last four state House elections.Īdditionally, more Democrats (four) than Republicans (two) have announced they aren’t running for reelection or seeking another office - what we call “pure” retirements - and while it’s still early, a continuation of that trend would be another indication that Democrats are concerned about the midterm environment. Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. House of Representatives retiring or seeking another office ahead of the 2022 election, as of 5 p.m. By comparison, only one Republican is leaving a seat that’s less than 10 points more Republican, meaning retirements and departures from office haven’t left the GOP as exposed.ġ6 House members are leaving office so far Seven of the eight outgoing Democrats represent districts that are less than 5 points more Democratic than the country as a whole - including the seats held by Kind and Lamb - which could make those seats easier for the GOP to flip next year. Overall, 16 representatives have announced their departures, 3 but in another ominous sign for Democrats, the type of seats the two parties are leaving open differs dramatically, as the table below shows. The fact that Democrats may be in trouble shouldn’t come as a surprise, though, since the president’s party usually loses ground in midterm House elections. Take the 2018 midterm cycle, when about two times as many House Republicans as Democrats decided to leave office ahead of that year’s “ blue wave.” And while House Democrats are currently nowhere near the 39 Republicans who threw in the towel before the 2018 election, these departures are still an early warning for them, especially considering Democrats hold a narrow 222-to-213 seat majority, 2 meaning Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to capture the chamber. Of course, House Democrats are sitting out reelection for numerous reasons, but it’s an important thing to track, as retirements and runs for other offices can hint at what members expect the midterm landscape to look like. ![]() Lamb’s motivations are different from Kind’s, however: Lamb is running for retiring Republican Pat Toomey’s seat in the Senate. ![]() This district could be a tough one for Democrats to retain, especially if redistricting makes his seat even more Republican. Conor Lamb, a relative newcomer, is leaving his Pittsburgh-area seat, which is 2 points more Republican than the country as a whole. With Kind retiring, it will be challenging for Democrats to hold on to his rural, western Wisconsin seat, which is about 9 percentage points more Republican than the country as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric. Perhaps most notably, longtime Wisconsin Rep. Indeed, complications from redistricting may have influenced two Democratic House members in highly competitive seats to announce their exits recently, portending trouble for their party in next year’s midterm elections. House of Representatives seek reelection, run for another office or leave political life entirely. These new maps are important because they will not only help determine which party has an advantage moving into the 2022 midterms, but also influence whether members of the U.S. Census Bureau released detailed redistricting data that states will use to draw their congressional lines. ![]()
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